1. Fabio and Diego will hurt their teams. No foreign-born coach has ever won the World Cup. English skipper Fabio Capello is foreign-born, and England is the only real power with a such a coach. You would think they knew this stat... Brazilians always coach Brazil, Germans always coach Germany and Diego (the hand-baller below) coaches Argentina. More on that in a second. In fact, 3 foreign-born coaches have made the World Cup final and they have lost each time-- 0-3. According to the WSJ, native coaches average a half round further advancement than foreign coaches. Is the English FA really saying that no Englishmen is even within a half-round of Don Fabio?
As for Diego, he is just strange. I read this week that he has requested his accommodations be decked out with high-end bidets. Does it seem like he is A) concentrated on winning the World Cup or B) keeping his kit clean? If I were picking sides in my under 55 footy league, he would be a top choice...but to coach my national team?
This is the gentlemen that was kicked out of international soccer twice for drugs- once a 15 month ban for cocaine, has had his stomach stapled for weight issues (stomach staples are widely thought to have ruined Charlie Weis' brilliant coaching mind), owes the Italian government over 35 million Euros in back taxes, has befriended Hugo Chavez, and his WORST coaching characteristic is that he is judged by many to be the best footballer ever. Do you really want the best player ever coaching a team of players that are not the best players ever?
The only person with worse judgment than Maradona is the guy that decided Maradona would coach the national team.
The crazy thing is, Argentina might have the best personnel of any team in the tournament-- Messi (consensus best player in the world), Higuain (27 goals for Real Madrid), Milito (most prolific scorer on the best club in the world)...but why would they jeopardize that by making a weird, crazy, fat, Argentinian Michael Jordan the head coach?
2. Group A is the real Group of Death...
No jokes about North Korea being in the so-called "Group of Death." The REAL Group of Death is Group A- France, Uruguay, Mexico and South Africa.
Group G has been dubbed the Group of Death because it has FIFA ranked #1 Brazil, #3 Portugal, #27 Ivory Coast, the highest profile African team, and one country that stinks at soccer (#105) but they are (un)fortunate enough to be run by an evil dictator, so FIFA thought it would be funny to put them in this group. I predict no fewer than 2 North Korean defections this Cup.
The issue is, Group G is waaay overrated and FIFA rankings in general might be overrated (possibly). No FIFA #1 entering a Cup has ever won the title (the FIFA rankings started in '92 so they are 0-4 in predicting a winner). Worse yet, in 18 Cups, only one favorite (W. Germany in '74) has ever claimed victory. This does not bode well for #1 Brazil. They are a target.
As for #3 Portugal, they tied the Cape Verde Islands recently 0-0 (yes, Cape Verde has at least 11 residents), and Ronaldo has not scored for his country in over a year. Portugal's second biggest name, Nani, is out of the Cup with a broken collarbone. Injuries plague Ivory Coast as well with Didier Drogba breaking his arm last week. Though he may play, he most certainly will not be up to snuff.
As for Group A, #9 France is a always top caliber squad, but have been performing mediocre lately- see last week's 1-0 loss to China (they got Jabulani-ized). #16 Mexico has made it out of the group stage in the last 4 World Cups, and #17 Uruguay score lots of goals and made the Cup by beating Costa Rica in controversial fashion. South Africa is ranked #83 but should get at least a 25 spot boost because they are host nation. No host nation has ever failed to make it out of the Group Stage, so South Africa will be a difficult ouster with the Jubulani knuckling and the Vuvuzelas buzzing.
In fact, if you remove S. Africa's ranking from the mix, Group A's teams average #14 in the FIFA rankings. I predict Mexico and Uruguay will finish #1 and #2.
3. A European team will not win.
2010 is the 19th World Cup- the Cup has been held in Europe 1o times and European teams have won 9 of them. A seventeen-year-old Pele (left) beat 11 Swedes to win the title in 1958, but that is clearly an outlier in the data. When the Cup is played anywhere except Europe, South American teams have won. South Africa is not in Europe-- a European team will not win this World Cup.
My odds would be on Brazil (but they can't win because they are #1) or Argentina (but they are coached by the fat MJ...hmm). A 5-team possible-winners-pool would be Nigeria, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay or....the U.S. Wow- never thought I'd say that. The U.S. defense is poor, but if they get on a roll, watch out.
4. The new Jabulani ball will create true parity.
This ball has been complained about because it knuckles and flutters like a hummingbird. I think this will allow some teams to win games they would not have ordinarily won. Watch for a first-time World Cup finalist in 2010 i.e. not the Usual Suspects of Brazil, Germany (who have been in the Final 7 times each), Italy (6 Finals).
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